How climate variables affect the distribution of mosquito-borne viruses?
The 2016-2022 Yellow Fever (YF) wave was unprecedented. It breached historical barriers, spreading from the Amazon through the Cerrado and into the densely populated Atlantic Forest.
Critical questions:
Temperature anomalies are the biological constraints of the virus. The viral incubation speed depends on temperature conditions (Bellone and Failoux, 2025; Johanssen et al, 2010).
Temperature corridors
Climate anomalies during the YF outbreak
Municipalities affected by yellow fever in the Southeast region of Brazil between January 2016 and June 2025 (red line). Municipalities affected by minimum temperature anomalies in the Southeast region of Brazil between January 2016 and June 2025 (dashed blue line). Data were aggregated by epidemiological week. We considered a climatic anomaly as a minimum temperature above 5 standard deviations from the expected average for the 30-year period (1986–2015).
Source: OpenDataSUS; Coopernicus CDS.
Association of affected municipalities and climate anomalies
Questions & Discussion
Mauro MORAIS
Institut Pasteur de São Paulo (IPSP)
mauro_morais@pasteur-sp.org.br